Comment by Jose Maria Sison, NDFP Chief Political Consultant
The conclusion of the analyst author is correct: that the data (even if coming from official GRP sources) in the armed conflict from 2016 to 2019 in Mindanao indicate that the AFP and PNP will not be able to defeat or finish off the NPA.
The author understands the NPA strategy and tactics of guerrilla warfare. If the AFP concentrates on a certain area (e.g. Eastern Mindanao), the NPA can make a temporary retreat to prepare for a counteroffensive or shift to areas where the enemy is weak. Thus, the increase of NPA tactical offensives in provinces outside of the area of enemy concentration.
Considering that the NPA is a nationwide force, the overconcentration of the enemy in Mindanao also allows the NPA in other islands to have more leeway for NPA tactical offensives.
If the NPA national operational command would issue a national guideline to its more than 100 guerrilla fronts to launch a certain minimum of tactical offensives to inflict 5 to 10 casualties on the AFP and PNP per guerrilla front per month, the result would be the disabling of one to two enemy battalions every month.
The author of the article below also points out the futility of the National Task Force-ELCAC in trying to discredit and destroy the revolutionary movement. The militarization of civilian agencies and functions, the corruption of military officers and the anti-communist line of psywar and deception only serve to stress the justness of the revolutionary struggle for national liberation and democracy against imperialism, feudalism and bureaucrat capitalism.